The global community must achieve a deal at Copenhagen that delivers the scale and speed of emissions cuts that are required to have a good chance of keeping global warming under 2 degrees C. Such a deal must also be fair and equitable - especially in relation to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable communities - and must protect the world’s ecosystems. Given the latest scientific evidence, and the need to adopt a highly precautionary approach, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations should decline to around 350 ppmv CO₂(e).

As described above, by proving that we are prepared to meet our domestic obligations, and by demonstrating the very real benefits of investing in a low carbon economy, the UK will lend practical reality to its rhetorical commitments. It is worth underscoring how important this domestic action will be in creating the right political climate for achieving a deal at Copenhagen. That said, it is clear that the UK will need to maximise the impact of its international diplomacy and leadership opportunities throughout 2009 and at the talks themselves.

Peak-and-Decline by 2015

The UK must work with all countries for a definitive new deal, ensuring it comes into force by 2012 (i.e. in time for when the current ‘Kyoto’ deal runs out). The deal must deliver a peak-and-decline in global emissions by 2015, with industrialised countries leading the effort. Theses countries must deliver an aggregate emissions reduction of at least 40% by 2020 (compared to 1990 levels), decarbonising by 2050 to help deliver a global emissions cut of at least 80% by the same date.

The EU

The UK must also work within the EU to ensure that it takes concrete measures to meet the emissions reductions targets set within its own climate package. The current proposal of a 30% EU cut (compared to 1990) by 2020 is insufficient. It must be at least 40%, and the vast majority of these reductions (preferably all of them) must be achieved through action within the EU.

Developing Countries

Finally, the UK must work with developing countries to ensure that their voices are heard, and that the terms of any new deal are equitable. The UK should, as a starting point, engage with G77 proposals. Financial flows to developing countries must be within a framework that ensures they are secure, equitable, predictable, grants-based, additional to development aid and based on specific needs-assessments. Financial support should be targeted on the poorest and most vulnerable countries and communities. Support for mitigation in developing countries should achieve verifiable reduced or avoided emissions, averaging 15-30% below business-as-usual by 2020.

Forests

Any REDD (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) mechanism developed at Copenhagen must:

• Provide sufficient, reliable funding to tackle deforestation and forest degradation.
• Ensure that reducing deforestation is additional to the action industrialised nations must take to reduce their own emissions.
• Encourage the involvement of all developing countries with forest issues.
• Protect the rights and livelihoods of indigenous peoples and local communities.
• Protect biodiversity as well as maintaining carbon storage
• Protect against leakage (i.e. the displacement of deforestation from one country to another) via national-level reductions in deforestation.

An Equitable Deal

Any new international plan of action to reduce global emissions will need a framework to set the obligations of each country. Stop Climate Chaos believes that any such framework must be socially equitable. In particular this requirement of equity means that the countries that have done most to create climate change - namely those of the industrialised world - must act immediately to set and meet binding emissions reductions pathways. It also means that the timing and nature of the obligations of other countries to act to reduce present or future emissions must be set in recognition of their historical responsibilities, current emissions and developmental needs.